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Open Letter
Little benefit and still unclear risks from COVID vaccinations
Dear Members of Parliament,
Dear Federal Chancellor,
we perceive with great concern that our society is divided into those vaccinated against COVID and unvaccinated, and that there is growing pressure exerted on unvaccinated to cause them to get vaccinated.
We call on the government to put a stop to this division and not only to stop all direct and indirect compulsory measures aimed at vaccinating the previously unvaccinated, but also to actively prevent them.
In the following, we explain why compulsion or pressure of any kind is neither justified nor ethically justifiable.
The effectiveness of vaccination in protecting against severe COVID-19 disease
The pivotal trials of vaccines against COVID-19 have shown a relative vaccine effectiveness of about 60 to 95% for preventing infection. The Follow-up, however, was only 10 to 14 weeks [1-4]. Due to the short observation period and the insufficient number of events, it is neither possible to make statements about long-term efficacy, nor conclusions regarding the prevention of severe disease progressions or deaths can be drawn. Here, observational studies with vaccinated and non-vaccinated persons are necessary.
An important example of such a study is a large matched cohort study from Israel, in which 596,618 vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were compared with respect to the risk of COVID-related hospitalization or death [5]. The relative risk reduction of vaccinated individuals with respect to hospitalization was 58% – which is already much less than the registration studies suggested. However, the absolute risk reduction was only 0.025%. This means that approximately 4000 people need to be vaccinated to prevent one hospitalization. With regard to the prevention of one death, the absolute risk is reduced by only 0.0039% by vaccination. This means that about 26,000 people need to be vaccinated to prevent one COVID death. The probability for the individual to be protected by the vaccination is therefore extremely low and must therefore be weighed against the risks of vaccination. In the meantime, there are numerous other observational studies with very similar results.
The effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 mutants over the time
Recent works show that vaccine effectiveness declines over time. In a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, there was a decline in the relative vaccine efficacy from > 90% immediately after full immunization to about 65% after four months [6]. In addition, the study showed that there was a significant increase of delta variant infections both in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in July 2021, suggesting that vaccine effectiveness not only declines over time, but is also lower for the delta variant. Conclusions regarding protection against hospitalization and death were not possible in this study, because only one hospitalization and not even one death were observed.
A recently published cohort study from Sweden shows impressively that vaccine efficacy decreases already after six to seven months to such an extent that protection can no longer be assumed [7]. This fact is also reflected in the increasing numbers of vaccinated people among COVID patients treated in hospital and intensive care units.
Even boostering propagated by many in the meantime will not solve the COVID problem. The absolute risk reduction for severe COVID progression by boostering was 0.18% for patients over 60 years of age with an observation period of only one month according to a study from Israel [8]. Corresponding studies in younger and otherwise healthy individuals are completely lacking. In particular, it is unknown whether vaccination and boostering will be effective with respect to emerging variants such as „Omikron“.
The risks of COVID vaccines
No drug or vaccine has experienced so many reports of serious adverse effects and deaths in such a short period of time as the COVID-19 vaccines. In its Safety Report dated Sept. 20, 2021, the Paul-Ehrlich-Institute referred to more than 156,360 reports of incidents in temporal connection with a COVID vaccination in Germany [9]. The estimated number of unreported cases is probably many times higher. Among the reported incidents 1,450 were fatal, and 15,122 (0.015% of all vaccinations) were classified as severe (requiring hospital admission). The serious adverse events whose occurrence is most likely related to vaccination include cardiac muscle inflammation of the heart muscle and pericardium (myo- and pericarditis), severe allergic reactions (anaphylaxis), thromboses (pulmonary embolisms, strokes, heart attacks), deficiency of blood platelets (thrombocytopenia, hemorrhages), and total body paralysis (Guillain-Barré syndrome). The long-term consequences of the already known serious side effects and further, still largely unexplored negative effects such as an antibody-dependent enhancement of inflammatory processes in the event of re-infection [ADE]) and the promotion of the development of immune complex and autoimmune diseases due to the nucleoside-modified mRNA of the mRNA vaccines are not yet foreseeable due to the short observation times so far.
Infectivity of the vaccinated and unvaccinated
Recent studies show that there is no difference in the viral load and in the number of individuals to whom the infection is transmitted between vaccinated and unvaccinated persons [10] [11]. Vaccinated persons are therefore just as infectious as unvaccinated persons and can contribute equally to the spread of the disease as unvaccinated persons. These findings were confirmed by a large population study conducted by Public Health England: both in alpha and in delta variant infections the same PCR-Ct values are found in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals [12].
Vaccination of recovered persons
There is no study that has demonstrated a benefit of the vaccination for recovered persons with respect to clinically relevant endpoints. Those who have recovered have a very low risk of recurrence of disease and an even lower risk of a severe disease progression. According to a study from Qatar, the risk for a recurrence of disease within one year in unvaccinated recovered persons was 0.37%, and the risk for a severe course of disease was only 0.001%, and there was not a single death [13]. Even if the high relative risk reductions of the studies are transferred to a collective of recovered persons, the NNV value, i.e. the number of those who need to be vaccinated in order to prevent a severe course of the disease is over 100,000.
The benefit-harm balance of COVID-19 vaccines
When considering the benefit-harm balance, the personal risk of a human of becoming severely ill with COVID-19 or dying from the disease, must be taken into account. This risk is determined primarily by age and the presence of chronic diseases. A systematic review has shown that the risk of dying from COVID is about 10,000 times higher for people over 80 years of age than for children under 10 years of age [14]. This factor must be included in considerations of the benefits, as well as the harms of vaccination. The figures in the Safety Report of the Paul-Ehrlich-Institute suggest that serious adverse effects occur about as frequently in children as in adults. However, myocarditis probably occurs even more frequently in children and adolescents. In children, the number of required vaccinations to prevent one severe COVID-19 disease or even death from COVID increases to a multiple. It can be concluded from this that the benefit-harm balance of vaccination for children, adolescents and young adults is very likely to be negative, i.e. the vaccination rather causes more harm than prevents severe COVID. At best in elderly people and those with risk factors for a severe course of disease, a possible protective effect of the vaccination could outweigh. The protection of short duration and the negative consequences of booster vaccinations, e.g. in Israel, make even this benefit appear doubtful. In addition, it must be taken into account that many possible long-term damages of the vaccinations are not yet known due to the lack of observation time and the incomplete documentation.
For these reasons, every person must be free to decide in favor of or against a vaccination after honest information about the benefits and risks. A direct or indirect compulsory vaccination is neither justifiable nor ethically justifiable on the basis of the available evidence.
Conclusion
The absolute, individual benefit of vaccination against COVID-19 is marginal in the average population. It may be higher for people with high risk for a severe course of COVID. Even for these individuals, however, the vaccines still carry unknown risks for adverse late effects. Young and healthy people and in particular healthy children and adolescents must be advised against vaccination, since the risks for serious side effects and late effects far exceed the potential benefits.
The assertion that vaccination will protect other people from COVID-19 is not valid and implausible, given the high incidence of diseases in vaccinated individuals and the lack of difference in infectivity between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Vaccination of recovered people is neither scientifically nor epidemiological reasonable.
We therefore demand
- the immediate stop of exclusion and restriction of unvaccinated children and adolescents from social participation
- the immediate stop of the one-sided vaccination information playing down the possible damage as well as an end to the coercion of the population to vaccinate
- the immediate end of discrimination of unvaccinated persons and of the unequal treatment of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in public life, at the workplace and in schools and day-care centers
- a return of political and medical decision makers to (scientific) neutrality, away from the lobby-compliant panic politics pursued so far, which deliberately ignores scientific facts and also violates the fundamental values of liberal democracy.